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Basketball eFG%: How Three-Pointers Change Shooting Efficiency

eFG% adjusts field-goal percentage for the extra point from a made three. A worked example shows what it captures and what still requires context.

What eFG% measures

A basic field-goal percentage gives a made two-pointer and a made three-pointer the same weight: each is one made field goal, even though they score different numbers of points. That can rank a player with a lower raw shooting percentage below a teammate who makes fewer shots but converts more threes, even though the latter scores more points per make. Effective field-goal percentage, or eFG%, adjusts that comparison by adding half of made three-pointers to total field goals made.

The formula is eFG% = (FGM + 0.5 × 3PM) / FGA. FGM is all field goals made, 3PM is three-pointers made, and FGA is field-goal attempts. Free throws are excluded. It is not a complete measure of scoring or offensive value; it simply puts two- and three-point field goals on a common scale that reflects their listed point value.

A worked example

Player A makes 6 of 12 shots, including four threes. His regular FG% is 50%. His eFG% is (6 + 0.5 × 4) / 12 = 8 / 12 = 66.7%. Player B makes 7 of 12, with one three: a higher FG% of 58.3%, but eFG% of (7 + 0.5 × 1) / 12 = 62.5%. The raw percentage favors B; average points per field-goal attempt favor A: 16/12 versus 15/12. The example excludes free throws and does not tell us who scored more points in the game.

When the metric helps—and when it misleads

Use eFG% alongside attempt volume, three-point share, and minutes played. Two long-range makes can move the number sharply in one game; on a small sample, it describes what happened more than it establishes a lasting skill. A player may also face difficult contests and still make shots, while a team rate combines players with very different roles.

The statistic ignores turnovers, offensive rebounds, and free throws. A high eFG% does not tell you points per possession or the pace of a game. Compare shot mix and role before ranking players by one percentage. For a neighboring view of points, rebounds, and assists markets, see our guide to basketball PRA statistics.

Applying it to a betting line

For a player-points market, eFG% can show whether recent scoring came from repeatable attempts near the rim or a short run of made threes. Check attempts, expected role, opponent, and playing time; do not turn a percentage from a couple of games into a forecast. When comparing prices, remember that quoted odds include a margin; our three-way margin example explains the arithmetic.

Also check the market’s settlement rules and whether overtime counts; our guide to basketball spreads and overtime settlement covers that detail. The metric describes shooting efficiency; it does not give a bet’s probability of winning or remove uncertainty.

When comparing two games, check whether the player’s three-point share changed along with the percentage. A rise in eFG% on the same number of attempts may come from one extra made three. If the volume and shot locations do not persist, that signal can disappear in the next game. Context does not change the formula, but it keeps us from assigning it more predictive meaning than it has.

Read also

Basketball True Shooting Percentage: Including Free Throws

SPORTEXA AI / JOURNAL

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